Kony hiding in Central African Republic

That is the price country pays for having failed states as neighbors. As the pressure became too great on the LRA in Uganda, they fled to South Sudan. When the fighting became problematic there they established bases in Democratic Republic of the Congo. And now that the governments of South Sudan, DRC and Uganda has jointly attacked the LRA, they have moved further northwest to CAR. If the LRA had been operating in Germany or in Malaysia, they would have had no choice but to abdicate after the pressure got too high in their country; there were simply no weak neighbors keep on fighting.

The LRA claims its whole leadership survived last week's attack. This is not too surprising given their skills at avoiding military strikes in the past. But although the guerrilla is alive and well, there is no escaping the fact that it is on the run and it is getting farther and farther from Uganda. While it is not the optimal solution for Northern Uganda, the distance between them and Kony allow reconstruction to happen and a semblance of normal life to restart. Hopefully by the time (and if) the LRA comes back, Acholi communities and the Ugandan government will be resilient enough to withstand them. As for CAR, god bless them; the last thing they needed was yet another rebel group.

Civil War to restart in South Sudan?

There has been clashes in the oil-rich Southern Sudanese town of Abyei between Sudanese government soldiers (who were violating ceasefire agreement by being in the city) and the Southern Sudanese police, causing several thousands people to flee. The Sudanese troops have withdrawn for now but this is a bad sign. Both factions want to control this oil-rich region; Khartoum is deriving most of its foreign currency from it and the Southern Sudanese government knows it can not win if the Sudanese government controls the oil fields. This might be the first step toward faltering of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in 2005 in Sudan and a return to the civil war which gripped the country for over 40 years. If this is correct, this is one of the saddest news of 2008, even for a skeptic like me who never believed too much in the CPA (but I still had a bit hope).

In seemingly unrelated news, DR Congo, Uganda and Southern Sudan have attacked LRA positions over the past days, breaking the peace process. Kony (LRA's leader) did not agree to sign a peace deal because of the ICC warrant on his head, (although it might be because after decades in the bush, he can not envision living any other way) so the governments of the region decided to attempt to eliminate him instead in a coordinated strike. Although it might not look connected to Abyei, it is. If the civil war is reignited in Sudan, the LRA will once again get funding and help from Khartoum; they will be in a stronger position and more difficult to deal with, causing more violence and destruction. That is why I said it was very important to reach a peace deal with Kony before the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Sudan fell apart.

Let's hope the region does not fall apart.

Lord's Resistance Army refuses to sign peace because of ICC

Kony, the reclusive leader from one of the worst guerrilla group in the world, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) of Northern Uganda, has refused to sign a peace deal this weekend that he was apparently supposed to sign. "Kony says he will not sign until the issue of the ICC (International Criminal Court) is resolved, until the deferrals are made," according to Riek Machar, the vice president of South Sudan. The ICC issue is that Kony has been indicted for war crimes at the international court and it has proven to be a problem because the bureaucrats at The Hague refuse to negotiate. For them no deal is possible because Kony is a war criminal and should be brought to justice.

The LRA is one of the world's deadliest rebel groups. It has been in the field for over 20 years, mainly in Northern Uganda but also with bases in DR Congo and Southern Sudan. They have a reputation for being very dangerous and unpredictable, for raping entire villages and for forcing child to kill their family so that they can not go back in their villages before enrolling them as child soldiers. They have displaced over two millions people and killed several thousands.

So Kony IS a war criminal, there is no doubt about that. But the issue here is realism vs justice. Those who thinks western conception of justice should be imposed all over the world no matter the costs will applaud the ICC's attitude with the LRA. They think the population in the region will suffer greatly but it is all for the greater good of mankind. The logic being that when other rebel leaders see they can not escape ICC indictment, they will stop doing war crimes and the planet will be a better place (criminal law has not exactly stopped people in the west from doing crimes although it has probably reduced the number). These are very noble intentions.

But the other side of the argument is that the LRA, the Ugandan government, the Southern Sudan government and the people directly involved by the rebellion (Acholi in Northern Uganda being the main group) desperately want peace. The guerrilla has been operating for 20 years, making normal life totally impossible in the region, even though the rest of the country has been happy, prosperous and stable for that timeframe, growing at 6% a year. The people merely want to be able to lead normal lives and for this, they are ready to forgive Kony. Kony has repeatedly said over the past two years that he is ready for peace and that he wants a place to retire, but it is impossible because of the ICC warrants. Since the ICC has no power to arrest Kony and destroy the LRA, all this does is force the conflict to continue even though all parties involved wants it to end. In other words, the bureaucrats from The Hague have decided to make the people from this region continue to suffer for an untold number of years for their abstract conception of justice. The window for peace might be closing as the CPA elections and referendum in Sudan might reignite the civil war. If it restarts, Kony will most certainly receive heavy backing from Khartoum as he did before, and might not be amenable for negotiations for years to come.

This story has gone mostly unreported in the western world because Africans suffering and dying apparently does not make for an interesting news story. But I hope that at least the men and women working at the ICC realizes the cost they are asking the poorest people in the world to bear for their vision of justice. I hope they have trouble sleeping at night sometimes, because the people of Northern Uganda have been having nightmares for more than 20 years.

Light at the end of the tunnel for Darfur?

Let's not get overwhelmed with optimism, but today's cease-fire announcement by the Sudanese government is very good news. It's important to realize that this is a unilateral move and the rebel groups haven't agreed yet. But it is a rare sign that Khartoum is serious about stopping the problems in Darfur. Here's what Alex de Waal has to say:

When a solution comes to the Darfur crisis–as with Sudan’s national crisis–it will be a domestic solution, created and led by Sudanese, with the internationals in a supporting role. There is a flicker of a chance that the Sudan People’s Initiative marks the beginning of Sudanese taking ownership of the Darfur crisis and finding a way towards a solution.

But the most important reality today is that the denial and self-imposed political paralysis that have marked the Sudanese political establishment’s approach to Darfur have been decisively overcome. Sudanese leaders are back at doing what they do best–talking through their issues. There’s a glimmer of hope.

Go read the rest of his post, and if you're interested in Darfur visit his blog often for insightful analyses of the region.

So why is Bashir finally doing something about Darfur? It's hard to say but there are a few rumors floating around; maybe it's the ICC indictment or maybe the government wants get over the Darfur problem because of the 2009 elections that are planned under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which would allow Khartoum to focus on the election and the "troubles" with the South that will likely follow. In a way this might be only putting out one fire to light up another one, but let's keep some hope for now.