PAD saved face, but did they win the battle?

Correspondents say the airport blockade was becoming increasingly unpopular, so that Tuesday's court ruling against Mr Somchai offered a face-saving moment for the protesters to back down. -BBC

This was my opinion yesterday when I read the news. People's Alliance for Democracy protested for months for what? They destabilized the elected government and forced the removal of two Prime Minister (once in September and the last one yesterday when the court forced Mr Somchai to back down). But considering that the ruling party is just a front for Thaksin Shinawatra and that they will simply name another placeholder as PM, it can hardly be spun as a big win.

If you also take into account the fact that Thaksin was ousted in a coup two years ago by a military friendly to PAD's interests and that his party is back in power (under another name), as well as the fact that they withstood the opposition's heavy handed attempt to topple the party (and convinced the army not to do another coup), you can see where the wind is blowing. Soon enough Thaksin will attempt to come back in the country and this time it will be much harder for PAD to convince businessmen to support their protests; the odds are that they, along with the military, will realize that the alternative to a Thaksin return, something I'd called the Burma junta route, would be unacceptable.

Thaksin showed everyone that he can not be sidestepped, he's the big winner in all this. The losers are Thai people and PAD.

Thailand a role model for China's middle class?

Remember all those theories about how the emergence of an urban middle-classes is a force for democratisation, because the bourgeoise will demand political rights? Well, in Thailand the precise opposite is happening. The urban middle-classes are rising up and demanding that democracy be rescinded.

(...)

The middle-class backers of the PAD hate the fact that under universal suffrage, the votes of the rural poor in the north of Thailand are usually decisive. They see this as a formula for corruption and pork-barrel politics. Hence, their desire to roll back democracy.

The implications for China are fascinating. There too the urban middle-class seem to be emerging as a conservative force, suspicious of democracy and the peasant power that it might unleash. -Gideon Rachman

I mentioned this last week when I was that PAD was basically protesting against democracy to ensure they take power, but I did not see the implications for China. Very interesting comment.

Via Andrew Sullivan

Thailand PM steps down and protests called off

The constitutional court ordered Mr Somchai, the Prime Minister, to back down (at least temporarily) and to disband his party and his allies. This is the second time in less than a year that a Prime Minister from the PPP, the party allied with Thaksin Shinawatra, has been forced to resign by the court. In return, the protesters have agreed to leave the airport.

So the currents crisis seems to be calming down but it did not solve any issue and it is unclear who will run the country now and violence is still a very likely possibility. Thaksin and his allies remain as popular as ever and whoever he backs will probably get elected in the next elections, the protesters did not get more than tacit support from the army and did not manage to get the changes they wanted to remain a force in Thai politics (that is a non-representative voting system). So all in all it is hard to see who "won" in the troubles of the last few months, we will have to see how things pan out in the next few days, but I'd have to vote for Thaksin and his friends as the "winners".

Thailand update 01/12/08

Things are moving slowly in Thailand, and it seems things are looking brighter for the government. As I said Friday, I think the protesters overplayed their hand by occupying the airport; they lost the support of the business community by effectively strangulating the economy. The police has been blockading the protesters at the airport by occupying checkpoints, but they have not dared to forcibly remove the protesters. The government probably fears that if there is blood while they remove the protesters, the army will use this as an excuse to take the side of PAD. So they attempt to deal with the situation as smoothly as possible. The army has refused to get involved up until now, even though it is well known that they support PAD.

The protesters are still occupying the two airports but they are leaving government offices they had taken months ago to concentrate on the airports, which is a sign that they are stretched thin. They have struck a deal with the government to allow some flights and also alternative airports are being used all over Thailand; so people can fly in and out now. But the image of Thailand is taking a hit and every day that the airport protests continue, more tourists will cancel their trip or go elsewhere; so the business community will probably be forced to side with the government even if they do not like them. The protesters last chance is to force the hand of the army to get involved and they will do so by attempting to play martyr.

Friday Thailand update

The crisis continues. The cabinet, currently meeting in the northern city of Chang Mai, has called an emergency situation at the two Bangkok airport and told the protesters to go away. The police has surrounded the airports but have not yet tried to forcibly remove them yet. Today the Prime Minister, Mr Somchai, dismissed the head of police and replaced him. The reasons are unclear but more than likely he did not want to follow orders from Chang Mai.

The BBC claims the Prime Minister has lost the confidence of the army chief, General Anupong Paochinda, but the implications are not clear. Many are talking about a potential coup, but the question I asked yesterday remains: if the army wanted to do another coup, why didn't they do it when Mr Somchai was out of the country earlier this week? Now they are in a tough situation because the government is in the north where they have widespread support. Deposing the government in that situation would be risky and the end result highly unpredictable.

But the longer the airport remains occupied, the more the business community will turn against the prosters. From the BBC:

Correspondents say the airport protesters appear increasingly isolated and are losing the support of their traditional sympathisers, the business elite.

The airport closure will cost the country around $4bn (£2.6bn) in lost business and cause serious damage to its reputation as a tourist destination, something which will take the country years to recover from, say analysts.

I think the protesters might have overplayed their hand here. By blocking the airports they are cutting the lifeline to tens of thousands of people who rely on it for business. Their financial interests force them to side with the government now even if their hearts might be with the protesters. The other option would be a military coup but it would be more risky as pro-government counter protests could continue to disrupt the economy or force a bloody repression that would ruin Thailand's image as a tourist destination for years.

My reading of the situation is that the government will end up winning and the PAD protesters will be dispersed.

Today in the world: Thailand

A MAVERICK Thai general who has threatened to bomb anti-government protesters and drop snakes on them from helicopters has been reassigned as an aerobics teacher, the Bangkok Post said on Friday.

Major-general Khattiya Sawasdipol, a Rambo-esque anti-communist fighter more commonly known as Seh Daeng, reacted with disappointment to his new role as a military instructor promoting public fitness at marketplaces.

'It is ridiculous to send me, a warrior, to dance at markets,' he said, before launching an attack on his boss, army chief Anupong Paochinda. -Reuters

2008 is definitely not mavericks' best year. As Hilzoy said, there might be a lesson there in how to deal with past Bush officials.