Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Good news of the day: Georgia and Ukraine

Nato has reaffirmed that Ukraine and Georgia will eventually join the alliance, without offering them formal roadmaps towards membership.

Instead, Nato foreign ministers meeting in Brussels said the two nations should pursue reforms needed to join the bloc, without giving any timetable for entry. -BBC

Last week, Rice attempted to make a final push to force NATO to accept Georgia and Ukraine before Bush steps down. I did not think she would succeed and thankfully, she did not. It seems European countries have a better understanding of the danger of accepting nations lead by unstable and unpredictable leaders bent on confronting Russia.

Obama also claims to back Georgia and Ukraine entry in the alliance, but at least we know that Bush did not manage to make it happen in his last months. We will have to wait and see what Obama does once in power, but we can sleep safe for a few months.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Update on last Sunday's "attack" on Georgian and Polish presidents

Remember the attack on the motorcade of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili who was visiting the border with South Ossetia with his Polish counterpart Lech Kaczynski last Sunday? The Georgian public relation machine immediately blamed the Russians, with "unconfirmed reports" claiming South Ossetians border guard had been seen shooting near the motorcade.

Well, here's an update. The Polish Internal Security Agency (ABW) came to the conclusion that the incident was more than likely staged by the Georgians:
The daily “Dziennik” cites an Internal Security Agency (ABW) report saying that the shooting incident in Georgia involving Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Georgian President Saakashvili was most likely staged by the Georgians.

According to the daily, ABW head Krzysztof Bondaryk sent the report to the top sixteen people in Poland. The report states the shots fired near the presidential motorcade were most likely fired by Georgians as a provocation and propaganda tool.
If confirmed, add this to the long list of reasons why Georgia should never be given NATO membership. Saakashvili has proved to be dangerous and manipulative; if given membership he could cause real trouble by attempting to force confrontation with Russia. This would be disastrous because NATO members could be forced to side with Georgia against Russia. Let's not get sucked into a mutual defense pact with this madman.

Georgians are trying hard to portray themselves as the poor victim of evil Russia, even though they started the conflict this summer. The MSM in the U. S. is largely buying this narrative, and my instinct tells me that this report will not change this situation; in fact I'm fairly sure it will be largely ignored by the MSM.

Hat tip: Paul Wells

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Today in the World: Georgia

According to the BBC, shots were fired near the Georgian leader today.

Georgian President Mikhail Sakaashvili was showing his Polish counterpart Lech Kaczynski the border between Georgia and the "sort of independent" republic of South Ossetia. The shot was heard when the motorcade came within 30m of the border. According to a witness, it was a South Ossetian border guard who fired warning shots.

It is likely that the shots were not aimed at the Sakaashvili, it would have been a total public relation disaster for Russia to accidentally kill Kaczynski. But it is even more likely that the shots were approved by someone high up in the Russian government. Russia might be aggressive but they are not crazy; the last thing they want is some border soldier in the Caucasus starting troubles they did not want. In all likelihood this was a message to Sakaashvili: "If you want to make trouble you better watch your back, and you better not come close to South Ossetia again."

Monday, November 17, 2008

Mark Ames on Russia

Interesting interview of Mark Ames, the author of an article on the American media framing of the Russian-Georgian conflict in The Nation, on the subject of the Russian-Georgian conflict, Russia-American relations and topics in Russia's sphere.

I talked about the conflict previously, pointing to a NY Times article which showed that the way the media framed the conflict was totally wrong. But as Ames said, the NY Times was one of the worst offender on pro Georgia bias during the conflict. There is a strong lobby in the United States that wishes to portray Russia as irrational, dangerous and a threat to world stability; they are trying, and largely succeeding, to impose their narrative on the mainstream of American politics. This is dangerous because they tell only one side of the story, they totally misunderstand Russia internal politics and they ignore or don't understand long term demographic trends which will limit Russia to being only a regional power. As Ames says in the interview, Russians are extremely sensitive to how the west see them and very angry when they think they are being treated unfairly. So the narrative could become a self-fulfilling prophecy; if the west treat Russia as if they were the "bad guys", they will start acting like it out of a lack of confidence in the west.

Here's an analogy. In psychiatry there is a defense mechanism called projective identification, which is often unconsciously used by people with borderline personality disorder and paranoid personality disorder. It is a mechanism whereas person A project an emotion on person B and will unconsciously act to make person B feel and act that way to confirm his own mistaken belief. Here is an example. If a patient is angry because his doctor is going on a vacation and he feels abandoned (that would be typical of a borderline personality disorder who are also prone to attempt suicide), he will project his anger to the doctor; he does not recognize that he is angry, he believes that it's the doctor who is angry. Then he will say, upon leaving the office, "See you after your vacations doc... if I don't kill myself". The goal is to make the doctor angry to confirm his own pathological belief. This allows the patient to avoid taking a look at himself, he can blame others instead.

This is a similar kind of behavior we are seeing in regard to USA relation with Russia. If you look at it from Russia's point of view, its relationship with the USA has been far from positive since Yelstin such as the disastrous western backed privatization, NATO expansion after promising not to do it, messing with Serbia and Kosovo without Russian support, support of Putin enemies in former Soviet Union Republics, some of whom have been in the Russian Empire for 4 centuries and Bush backing off the ABM treaty among many others humiliations. Yet the Russian point of view is never mentioned in the mainstream media, all we hear about is a totalitarian and irrational dictator bent on destroying its neighbours. Let's stop the projective identification. Go listen to Ames.

Friday, November 7, 2008

The truth about "Russian aggression"

From the NYTimes:
Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression.
In other words, Georgia attacked the enclave of South Otessia, killing russians "peacekeeper" in the process, which drew a Russian response. The dominant narrative, coming straight out of Tbilisi, was that Georgia was attempting to defend itself from a resurgent Russia. This was eaten up by the American establishment especially John McCain and the neoconservatives.

More broadly, this crisis serve this illustrate the pitfalls of using simplified caricatures of your enemies and look only for the data that fits it. The Russian government might not be always honest, but it doesn't mean everything coming out of the Kremlin is a lie. And it's not because Saakashvili claims to be pro-Western that he's telling the truth.

This crisis is also another reason why you should read Daniel Larison regularly.