Majority for Charest

Charest won a majority government tonight with a few seats more than the 63 he needed. Parti Québécois did much better than expected with around 51 seats, which will be seen as a victory for Marois. The ADQ has dropped to 17% with 7 seats and Dumont announced that he will step down in a few months and quit politics. Amir Khadir from Québec Solidaire won a seat so the velvet left will have a voice at the National Assembly, which will be highly entertaining.

I do not have much time to blog these days as I have several finals in the next week and a half and I am sick. Posting will be light in the coming days.

Québec poll: Charest surging ahead three days before election

With three days left before the election, this new CROP-La Presse poll has some very good news for Jean Charest. Results:

PLQ (Jean Charest): 45%
PQ (Pauline Marois): 29%
ADQ (Mario Dumont ): 15%

The Liberals have not moved since the last poll whereas the Parti Québécois dropped by 3 points and the ADQ increased its percentage by 3. These results would give a comfortable majority for Jean Charest. The Liberals are a mere one point behind the PQ (35% vs 36%) among french voters, an increase of two points since last poll; although unnecessary, a win among francophone would be a moral victory for Jean Charest.

The PQ is getting an astounding 8% less than the percentage of people who claim to be independentist, although it is unclear why those people are not voting for them (expect the hardliners to use this statistics as an argument in internal party fights after Monday). Mario Dumont is also heading toward disaster, with 15% he will get a few deputies at best and lose his standing as an official party. With three days left before the election, it is hard to see how the opposition parties could turn things around. It looks like Jean Charest will remain in power for at least four more years.

Harper and Québec

Harper has attempted to demonize the Bloc Québécois following the formation of the LPC/NPD/BQ coalition. I never voted for BQ or Parti Québécois, but the idea that their mere presence in a coalition is used as an argument against the coalition has greatly angered me (and pretty much every Québécois I have talked to). If Québec is to be a part of Canada, Québécois have every right to influence the direction that the country takes; if you attack the coalition on the basis of the support of the Bloc, you question whether or not Québécois should have a right to influence the country. This is low level demagoguery. The Bloc is not some kind of disreputable organization or a mafia; it is a political party playing by the rules of the Canadian Parliamentary system. If you are not happy, blame the system and not those who follow the rules.

Harper has destroyed in a few days all his efforts to build support for the CPC in Québec.

The crisis in Ottawa helps Charest

The crisis in Ottawa is the thing everyone is talking about right now in the political world; even with provincial elections a mere week away. This is good news for Charest because since he has been leading overwhelmingly in the polls, it gives less of a chance for the other parties to catch up and also because he can point to Ottawa as an example of why a minority government is not a good idea. For Charest, no provincial news is good news.

Update: An alternative view would be that the current crisis shows that a minority government is good because it allows other parties to prevent the government from doing whatever they want and that if Charest has a majority he will become "arrogant" like in 2003 whereas if it is a minority he will have to play nice as he has done since 2007. That might work to some extent, although I think the fear of an "unleashed" Charest is much much weaker than the fear of a despotic Harper among Québécois.

Who won the debate?

Here is the result of a CROP-La Presse poll on who won the debate. Marois 38%, Dumont 34% and Charest 30%... Well I was totally wrong since I had declared Charest the winner. We will see how this play out in the "real" polls in the next few days. But I still do not think that this debate, even if it was won by Marois, will turn things around because Marois did not win a decisive victory.

Update: Something to keep in mind before you take the results of this poll seriously. According to the article, 34% intended to vote for the PQ if elections were held today, 33% for the PLQ and 14% for the ADQ, which looks good for Marois at first look. But according to the pollster, all parties won just one percent after the debate compared to how people intended to vote for before, which would put the PQ at 33%, the PLQ at 32% and the ADQ at 13%. In other words, the pollster selected a biased sample since its latest poll, released on Nov. 24th puts PLQ at 45%, PQ at 32% and ADQ at 12%. Why would that be? Maybe because there were 94% french speakers in the sample whereas the real percentage is 79% of the population. In CROP latest poll, PQ won over PLQ 39-36% over french speakers.

So I think overall you should be wary in how to interpret this debate poll. It does not mean Charest lost or that Marois looked better. It means that he "lost" and that Marois looked better among french speakers. Keeping in mind that Charest was losing by 3 points among french speakers but winning by 13% overall should help you put things in perspective. If the poll had reflected the real demographics of Québec we'd be able to get a better picture, but I guess it is harder to get English speakers to answer this poll since they are less likely to have watched the debate.

What is the project of the PQ for the province?

There was an answer by Pauline Marois that I found fascinating. A young man mentioned Barack Obama and how he had reignited the American Dream before asking the leaders what was their vision of the future for Québec.

Marois' answer was remarkable more in what she did not mention than in what she talked about. She spoke about taking care of families and education. But she did not even hint at independence in her answer. Sure, she mentioned it briefly elsewhere in the debate, but very little. But it was striking that the leader of the independence party of Québec, when asked what is her project for the future of Québec does not even mention the long term goal of independence. Of course she does not want a referendum unless she thinks she can win, and she knows Québécois do not want to talk about independence now; but I found it fascinating that she would not even mention it in her project for the province.

Debate liveblogging

Alright it's over. I could not liveblog for the last 20 minutes. Charest was a bit weaker at the end and his closing statement was unconvincing. Marois defended her support of reopening the topic of the Constitution, I'm not sure how that's gonna play out.

Overall I'd have to give it to Charest. He looked more in control than the others and managed to avoid any major gaffe. That is all he needed to win since he just needed a draw to win since he is 12% ahead of Marois. I do not see how Marois could close the gap with tonight's performance.

9:37 Good call by Charest. He clearly points out that both Dumont and Marois wants to reopen up the Constitutional problem. Dumont tries to change the subject by talking about cigarettes smuggling. Bizarre.

9:36 Well scratch that, she clearly state that she will hold a referendum on the cultural issue if Harper does not give her everything she wants. Dumont thinks it is a bad idea.

9:33 Charest attempts to position himself as the champion of Québécois in Ottawa. Marois does not shy away from saying that she wants independence but does not talk of referendum yet.

9:30 Next topic: Québec of tomorrow... First question: what will you do to reverse the demographic trend that reduce Québec's weight in Canada.

9:27 Asked how the government would help a stay-at-home mom with 2 kids, Marois honestly tells her that she will not do anything about it since she is focusing on the daycare at 7$/day.

9:26 But Dumont keeps dodging the question of where he will cut the 2 billions. It makes him look like an amateur.

9:24 Gotta give a point to Dumont when he criticize Marois for focusing entirely on daycare. He says, quite rightly, that not everyone with kids has the same kind of needs and his proposition to give 100$ per week per kid for each family is more interesting and flexible than a government run daycare system.

9:22 The first mention of the word "souverain" (sovereignty) by Marois, 88 minutes into the debate. It shows how eager she is to talk about it.

9:21 Marois tries to pass the message that she will do what she promises to do while Charest promises a lot but does not deliver. She has said that several times during the debate.

9:15 Charest asks Dumont where he will cut the 2 billions he promises to cut. Dumont replies by attacking Charest, dodging the question.

9:13 The debate feels very different from the federal debate. That's because Dumont has to hit both Marois and Charest and these only focus on each other. It feels more like a real debate than a 4 on 1 gangbang.

9:08 Charest is hitting low. After being blamed of not funding daycare enough he countered by saying that the PQ left the PLQ with 4.3 billions in debt in 2003 which forced him to face reality. Then he says: "Well we and Quebecois have to face reality. You might not have to face it but we do. You're not showing compassion". He is trying to hit on the perception of Marois as rich and out of touch with "real" Quebecois. Cheap shot.

9:04 Economy is over, now education. It is hard to say who was the strongest on the economy, but it was closer than in health care.

8:57 Dumont saying that the problem at the Caisse (Social security) is due to speculation is downright ridiculous

8:55 Marois is trying to cut Charest very aggressively and she seems a bit exasperated. She keeps talking while others are talking.

8:52 Charest tries to frame the debate with some of Marois' budget decision in 2002 but it does not work as well as during the health care debate. Marois and Dumont manages to corner Charest on the subject of the increased deficit which he tried to hide.

8:51 It is pretty hard to understand the policies of the Party with this debate. It is more of a (very entertaining) shout fest.

8:45 Dumont has clearly never read Keynes. Calls for the government to cut some government spending during an economic crisis.

8:42 Marois is stronger on the economy because she manages to set the frame of the debate on Charest's government results.

8:39 Wow. Dumont tells Charest that he had a good idea. Does not happen often.

8:37 Next topic: Economy.

8:28 Marois is not doing well. She totally lost the health care debate.

8:26 Dumont is always much better when complaining about the shortcomings of others than when proposing something.

8:24 Dumont is looking down when talking. Very bizarre body language. He does not look at the camera or who he is talking to.

8:21 Charest successfully managed to frame the health care woes around Marois' decision in the 1990's. Marois is looking weak on this, she should be on the attack on this subject and she is on the defensive.

8:18 "Madame Marois je vous arrête, vous l'avez géré vous le système de santé et puis vous ne l'avez pas amélioré." Ouch. That one hurt. (he told her she administered the health system in the past and she did not improve it). Dumont attempts to position himself as an alternative, but I do not think anyone takes him seriously anymore.

8:17 Marois does not even bother to attack Dumont. She uses her conversation with him to attack Charest.

8:13 Charest tries to pin the blame of the current problems of the health care system on Marois' decisions in the 1990s and she admits she made a mistake. Very heated argument between the two. Charest sounds a bit angry.

8:11 Charest is tearing Dumont a new one on health care. He was ready for the attacks and countered them really well. Dumont's proposal of cutting 2 billion on the health care system won't go well and Charest know it.

8:09 Marois is not wearing any jewel except for some very low key earrings. Still trying to be careful to avoid that "snobby" image which has been plaguing her for several years.

8:05 : Charest starts by trying to frame the election in term of the economy. Marois claims Charest started elections that no one wanted for no good reason but his self interest. She claims she has a plan which is based on "gros bon sens". She beat ADQ to his punchline! Maroi Dumont claims he brought change to Québec and cite his only achievement is bringing back numbered grades in school. A real paradigm shift!

The debate live

The debate is starting now. Go watch it there: Radio-canada

I'll give my comments during and after.

Another Québec poll update

A CROP/La Presse poll shows similar results to the Léger Marketing one we saw yesterday. PLQ is at 45%, PQ at 32% and ADQ at 12%. Satisfaction for the Charest's government has dropped from 59 to 51% in the past 2 weeks, but the significance of this is not clear since his poll number actually increased during that period. Charest is slightly behind among francophones with 36% of the vote compared to 39% for Marois. Although not necessary for a majority, winning a plurality among francophone would be a moral victory for Charest. The debate tonight will be important for both Marois and Charest. If they can't score major points, they will have a hard time preventing a majority government. It is also Dumont's last chance of preventing a total breakdown of the ADQ.

All in all, another good poll for Charest.

Smooth sailing for Charest

This Léger Marketing poll looks quite good with 3070 respondents over the last 6 days, which gives a margin of error of 1.8%. The results are very good news for the Liberals: 46% for PLQ, 34% for PQ and 12% for ADQ. Very little change, almost all of which is within the margin of error.

The debate is tomorrow, so I'll see how that goes before I make a prediction, but things are looking good for Jean and disastrous for the two other leaders

Québec election poll update

A new Nanos poll done this week has PLQ at 44%, PQ at 36% and the ADQ at an incredible 12%. That should be enough to give Jean Charest a majority government, like I predicted. The ADQ continues its free fall; with results like this they'll be completely wiped off the map. But the interesting part of the poll is that, when asked the question of which leader is the most competent, Charest (PLQ) gets 48%, Marois (PQ) gets 25% and Dumont (ADQ) gets 8%. This is a bad sign for Marois, she is very experienced and well known so she should be scoring higher on this. The only question that remains: minority or majority government?

Québécois' obsession with "culture"

My fellow Québécois appear to be bizarrely scared of having their "culture" stolen. During his first term, the Harper government had decided to cut 45 millions $ in arts funding. This was not something unexpected; Harper's philosophy favors small government, so this decision was totally in line with what would be expected from a Conservative. The cut did not focus on any particular province, it was an across the board cut that would affect both English and french projects. Yet the people in Québec were up in arms; there was a widespread feeling here that the "English" were trying to destroy our distinct french culture. A very popular video by some prominent Québécois artists was made during the campaign, playing on the theme of submissive Frenchman vs arrogant Englishmen in power (despite the fact that this bore little relation to reality, the video was a success because it pushed the right buttons). The Bloc Québécois exploited the issue; the end result was that the Conservatives ended up doing far worse than predicted in Québec.

Now, politicians in the current provincial election are trying hard to position themselves as pro culture. Charest (PLQ, Liberals) announced his new policy of removing provincial tax on Québécois' cultural products such as movie tickets. But today, Marois (PQ, pro independence) brought out the big guns. She said that if elected, she will force the federal government to transfer its few cultural responsibilities to Québec; she promised to call a referendum on this specific issue if they refuse. It's too early to tell how this will play out, but my gut feeling is that this will be a winning issue for Marois.

This whole cultural issue resonates with the population because it plays perfectly with our own mythology: the poor humiliated french speakers being trampled on by the arrogant Englishmen who wish to assimilate us. This is sad because it shows that despite the enormous gains of the past decades, Québécois are still insecure. They still see their existence as a separate people somewhat threatened; despite the fact that almost all important decisions about culture and language are taken at the provincial level. Another reason why this makes me sad is the ridiculous notion that culture is dependent on the state. The underlying logic is that Québec culture is so weak that if it was not artificially kept alive it would die a fast death. Again the theme is insecurity.

These insecurity would not be cured by independence either. There are very few important responsibilities in the federal government and we already run the show in regard to language, education or culture; in short all the important Ministries that can do something to preserve Québécois' culture and language. What independentists do not realize is that people decide to speak or work in English not because they have been successfully colonized by the Canadian English or out of deep belief in Trudeau's bilingualism, they do so for the same reason that Spanish, German or Chinese kids learn English: it is the world's lingua franca (as well as our deep economic links with our southern neighbour). The incentives for speaking English would be exactly the same in an independent Québec, and the tools at the disposal of the government to encourage "frenchness" would be exactly the same. So the culture/language fundamentalists would keep on harping the coming extinction of our way of life with the same paranoia and the same pathological insecurity. In the meanwhile, I'll continue to dissent here, in a format that allows me to escape the bubble.

Profile: Mario Dumont and the ADQ

Mario Dumont is the young co-founder and leader of Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) and the current official Leader of the Opposition at the National Assembly of Québec. You'll very rarely see a sentence with "Mario Dumont" in it without the ADQ abbreviation somewhere, and vice versa. He created the ADQ 14 years ago and it has basically always been ruled by Dumont, who is merely 38 years old as of 2008. The party was created as a break up from the Liberals (PLQ) over a dispute regarding the status of Québec in the federation. He supported the independence in the 1995 referendum but has since changed his position to "autonomiste", which means that Québec should attempt to gain more autonomy within the current Constitutional framework of Canada. His party is officially more to the right than the other parties, but in reality it could be more accurately defined as populist; positions appear to be taken on the basis of what is popular at the moment rather than coming from clearly articulated principles.

He has been elected in the National Assembly (NA) at every elections since 1994. For years, the party seemed doomed to be a small third party with no power, with only Dumont as a MNA. Although popular with the press and not shy about criticizing the ruling government, Dumont was not taken very seriously in the 1990s, being seen as too young and inexperienced; but the consensus was that he was an up and coming politician with a future. Growing disillusionment with the ruling PQ in 2002 allowed the ADQ to score a few more seats in the NA. But in the elections of 2003 he was seen as a serious contender for the first time and was attacked hard by both main parties; the final result of 18% of the vote and 4 seats was mitigated for the ADQ, but it clearly signaled that it was now a forced to be reckoned with.

The ADQ opportunity to take power came in 2007, with an unpopular incumbent (Jean Charest - PLQ) and an even more unpopular PQ challenger named André Boisclair, who was burdened by a party platform written by hardliners which he had to follow. But even as it tried to get elected, the ADQ was still mostly a one man show, with the only other "serious" member of the ADQ being Gilles Taillon, a well known businessman. While leading in several polls, the end result was disappointing for the ADQ, finishing second with a minority PLQ government.

The results of 2003 and 2007 showed a similar pattern. The support of the ADQ was high far from the election and dropped as Election Day grew nearer; the explanation for this pattern is that Dumont was a good critic of the government and managed to get a lot of attention with juicy soundbites, but he could not convince enough people that he and his party was ready to take over governing. In other words he could convince the population that the other parties were no good, but he could not removes lingering doubts that he was not ready to take over. So what he had to do after the 2007 elections was obvious: use his new platform as the Opposition Leader of the National Assembly, along with its new team of 41 MNAs, to show the province that he could not only complain, but he could also propose solutions and govern.

What was the result? Well if you read my previous post you know that the ADQ is polling at around 15% right now, a massive 16% drop compared to 2007 and even lower than the 2003 election results. The party also lost four by-elections this year, never exceeding 15% of the vote. The heavyweight Gilles Taillon committed political suicide by leaving his safe riding for one where he is sure to lose, which is widely seen as a polite way to leave the party. Last month, 2 MNAs decided to jump ship for the PLQ. ADQ members have openly described them as "rats jumping a sinking ship", which tells you about as much about how they see the 2 defectors as how they see their own party. The problem appears to be that Dumont was unable to transform his one-man party into a strong organization. Morale is low in the ADQ and questions about Mario Dumont's future are floating around. At 38 years old he still has plenty of time ahead of him, but after spending more than a decade specializing in criticizing the government, he will have to turn the focus on his own person and take an honest assessment of what he did wrong.

Quebec election update

I have been quiet on the subject of the election here in Québec, because even for a political nerd who lives in the province like me, it's very hard to be excited about it.

To reiterate what I said before, no one wanted this election. The Prime Minister, Jean Charest (PLQ) decided to call snap elections because he thought it was the best time to transform his minority government into a majority. A bit less than two weeks ago, I predicted that he would manage to do so. A new poll by CROP/La Presse seems to support my prediction. The PLQ (Liberals) gets 42%, the PQ (Independence party) 31% and the ADQ (populist party) 15%. Compared to the 2007 elections, that's +9% for the Liberals, +3% for the PQ and -16% for the ADQ. What's more, 64% of respondents want a majority government and 59% are satisfied with the Liberal administration. That should be more than enough for a majority for the PLQ.

Quote of the day

CalgaryGrit talking about some Québec provincial election polls:

It's difficult to know what to make of this without having Nate Silver explain it to me

Playing the sexism card

In the past few weeks, there have been stories circulating about several politicians from all over the world that have been looking closely at Obama's successful campaign in the hope to learn lessons from it. But not all of them, or so it appears.

Pauline Marois, the leader of the PQ which is currently running second in the Québec provincial election, has given an interview to the editorial board of La Presse (Montreal's leading newspaper, aside from one tabloid trash). Here's a quote (roughly translated):

If she's perceived as a "snob" and suffers from an image problem, Pauline Marois appears to think that it is because she is the victim of a latent sexism in Quebec's society.

"I always believe that it's over, that it's not true anymore. But from time to time, it comes back.", she said during a meeting with La Presse's editorial board, yesterday. The PQ leader deplores a certain double standard towards women, especially in the political world. "There's a different outlook on women (...). It can be about the tone of the voice or the clothes that we wear." she said.

The elections are exactly one month from today and it would appears that Pauline has chosen that it's the right time to tell the province that they're a bunch of sexists. That, to me, would be akin to Obama claiming in the first debate that if they criticize him they're racists and they should vote for him to atone for slavery. He ran his whole campaign on a sort of post-racial identity message. He avoided the subject of race like plague, except when he was forced to like in his Philadelphia speech. But even then it was a one time speech with the clear goal of turning the page on the Wright's stuff and the questionning that came with it. All along he took great pain to point out that his race was neither a disadvantage nor an advantage, that it might cost him some vote among some people but might gain him voters among others and that it cancelled out.

Marois has decided to go the opposite route: blame it all at the feet of the sexist population. It's not the goal of this post to debate whether or not she's right. I do believe it might be one factor among many that makes her a poor and boring candidate (which will be the subject of a future post). But I think her choice of complaining so openly about this touchy subject and attempting to play the sexism card so close to election day display a poor judgment. She tries to portray herself as a hapless victim and tell the reader in no uncertain words that he's a sexist if he doesn't like her.

I don't think the message is quite right. Here's a hint Pauline: it's not because you're a woman that people don't like you; it's that you're a bad politician.

Election in Québec

I thought I could go election-free for a little while, but my provincial Prime Minister decided, 12 hours after the election of President-elect Barack Obama, that it would be unhealthy for us political freaks to have no election to follow. So he decided to hold snap elections on December 8th.

Everyone is a bit puzzled as to why exactly we need election right now. The official excuse the Liberal Party needs a strong mandate from the people to deal effectively with the economical crisis which it can't do as a minority party. It sounds quite fishy, especially considering that Québec hasn't been hard hit by the crisis thanks to strong national banking regulations. The real reason is of course is that Jean Charest is tired of being a minority party and he believes right now is his best chance to be elected with a majority. That would make his job safe for 4 years, enough to weather the unavoidable repercussions of the american recession and give him time to recover before the next elections. He probably fears that a slowdown is inevitable and knows that if the opposition forces him to hold election during a slowdown, he'll be held accountable for the poor economy.

Here's a very quick breakdown of political party in Quebec and my prediction for the election. The Liberal Party is the current government, headed by Jean Charest. He had two term as Prime Minister, one from 2003 to 2007 where he was in the majority and the last one since 2007 where he is a minority government. He had severe popularity problems during his first term, but he has managed to improve his image in the last few years. The Liberal Party is a "centrist" Party that is for maintaining Québec in Canada.

The ADQ is the current official opposition, headed by Mario Dumont. It's widely said that his party is to the right of the spectrum but it'd be more accurate to describe it as a populist one-man show. They had a very strong showing in 2007 and everyone expected the party to mature and become a serious contender in Quebec politics, but having the spotlight of the official opposition actually highlighted the "broche-a-foin" (for those who don't read french: that's not a compliment) nature of this party. They're an "autonomous" party, meaning they're not for independence but they want more autonomy for Québec inside Canada. It's widely assumed that the ADQ will be the biggest loser of this election.

The PQ, headed by Pauline Marois, is the official independence party and is to the left of the political spectrum. This party has suffered a crushing defeat in 2007 and hopes to recover. They have decided to put the referendum project for independence on the backburner for now, because they know that the idea of another big drama referendum now will not win them any voter. But the leader, although very experienced, has an image problem as a boring, rich and out-of-touch politican. That campaign will be her chance to change that.

My predictions? I think Jean Charest will be able to squeeze out a weak majority. The ADQ will be banished from the opposition to where they belong, the back of the Assembly (until they mature and show they can do something more than whine and criticize). The PQ will become the official opposition but I don't think they can do any better.