Friday, December 5, 2008

Québec poll: Charest surging ahead three days before election

With three days left before the election, this new CROP-La Presse poll has some very good news for Jean Charest. Results:

PLQ (Jean Charest): 45%
PQ (Pauline Marois): 29%
ADQ (Mario Dumont ): 15%

The Liberals have not moved since the last poll whereas the Parti Québécois dropped by 3 points and the ADQ increased its percentage by 3. These results would give a comfortable majority for Jean Charest. The Liberals are a mere one point behind the PQ (35% vs 36%) among french voters, an increase of two points since last poll; although unnecessary, a win among francophone would be a moral victory for Jean Charest.

The PQ is getting an astounding 8% less than the percentage of people who claim to be independentist, although it is unclear why those people are not voting for them (expect the hardliners to use this statistics as an argument in internal party fights after Monday). Mario Dumont is also heading toward disaster, with 15% he will get a few deputies at best and lose his standing as an official party. With three days left before the election, it is hard to see how the opposition parties could turn things around. It looks like Jean Charest will remain in power for at least four more years.

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