Wednesday, December 3, 2008

PAD saved face, but did they win the battle?

Correspondents say the airport blockade was becoming increasingly unpopular, so that Tuesday's court ruling against Mr Somchai offered a face-saving moment for the protesters to back down. -BBC
This was my opinion yesterday when I read the news. People's Alliance for Democracy protested for months for what? They destabilized the elected government and forced the removal of two Prime Minister (once in September and the last one yesterday when the court forced Mr Somchai to back down). But considering that the ruling party is just a front for Thaksin Shinawatra and that they will simply name another placeholder as PM, it can hardly be spun as a big win.

If you also take into account the fact that Thaksin was ousted in a coup two years ago by a military friendly to PAD's interests and that his party is back in power (under another name), as well as the fact that they withstood the opposition's heavy handed attempt to topple the party (and convinced the army not to do another coup), you can see where the wind is blowing. Soon enough Thaksin will attempt to come back in the country and this time it will be much harder for PAD to convince businessmen to support their protests; the odds are that they, along with the military, will realize that the alternative to a Thaksin return, something I'd called the Burma junta route, would be unacceptable.

Thaksin showed everyone that he can not be sidestepped, he's the big winner in all this. The losers are Thai people and PAD.

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