Wednesday, November 5, 2008

A new electoral map?

President-elect Obama flipped quite a few states yesterday but what seems really interesting to me is that in at least 2 regions, it looks like there might be a strong demographic trend toward the Democrats. The first region is Virginia/North Carolina where "northerners" are moving in quickly in the urban area and bringing their own political views with them. The other region is the Mountain West, consisting of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado where hispanic immigration and californians looking for cheap housing are also making once safe Republican states looking increasingly Democrat-friendly. I think when the Obamania calms down and things return to normal, these regions will remain battleground states or become lean-Democrat.

President-elect Obama performed extremely well in the Midwest region but it seems to be more because he and Senator Biden have roots in the region and that the economy was a more pressing issue in voter's mind than elsewhere. I think that when a generic Democrat fights a generic Republican in 2016, those states will look a lot more similar than they did in 2000/2004 than the states I mentionned in the last paragraph.

No comments: